‘Brokeback’ has the Oscar momentum

The Golden Globes are often considered a reliable forecaster of the Academy Awards — more so than the New York and Los Angeles critics’ awards or the National Society of Film Critics’ prizes.

Last night’s sweep for “Brokeback Mountain” appears to point in that direction again. After taking the Globes for best picture (drama), director (Ang Lee), song (“A Love That Will Never Grow Old”) and script (by Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana), this acclaimed gay Western seems unbeatable at the Oscars.

“Walk the Line,” which won in the comedy-musical category for Reese Witherspoon and Joaquin Phoenix, is likely to earn Oscar nominations for both actors — and Witherspoon now appears to be the Oscar front-runner for best actress. Philip Seymour Hoffman, the Globes’ best actor (drama category) for “Capote,” also looks like the one to beat at the Oscars. (Nominations will be announced Jan. 31.)

Slide show   Winners’ circle Golden Globe award winners celebrate a night to remember

Last year, however, proved that the Globes don’t necessarily mean anything. Martin Scorsese’s “The Aviator” won best picture and actor (Leonardo Di Caprio) in the Globes’ drama category, while Clint Eastwood’s “Million Dollar Baby,” which eventually swept the top Oscars, had to make do with best actress (Hilary Swank) and director (Eastwood).

The supporting Globes went to Clive Owen and Natalie Portman for “Closer” — a movie that came up empty at the Oscars. (It's unclear what this means for this year's Globe choices for best supporting actors: George Clooney for "Syriana" and Rachel Weisz for "The Constant Gardener.")

Globes are a good predictor

Golden Globes ‘Walk the Line,’ ‘Brokeback’ win Golden Globes ‘Brokeback’ has the Oscar momentum Steve Carell enjoys his Golden moment Globes are black, white, and red all over TV favorites rewarded, if miscategorized Al Roker: Backstage at the Globes

Timing undoubtedly had much to do with this. “Closer” was a hotter film in December 2004 than it was a couple of months later when the Oscars were handed out. So was the expensive and heavily promoted “The Aviator.” Eastwood’s medium-budget “Baby” came out of nowhere to grab the attention of Oscar voters who were clearly more impressed by its emotional impact.

Something similar happened in 1993, when “Scent of a Woman” won the Golden Globe for best picture (drama). Eastwood’s  “Unforgiven,” which ended up dominating the Oscars a couple of months later, again won him the consolation Globe award for best director.

Slide show   Satin and lace Stars light up the red carpet with glamorous fashions at the Golden Globes

So maybe it’s just the Eastwood factor. They like him, they really really like him, but the Globes voters seem reluctant to give their big awards to his movies. At any rate, Eastwood isn’t in the running this year, so maybe the Globes can return to their previous prescient role.

The Globes’ score card can certainly look impressive. Two years ago, when Charlize Theron, Sean Penn, Tim Robbins, Renee Zellweger, Peter Jackson and “Lord of the Rings: Return of the King” were in the running, the Globes accurately anticipated their Oscar wins in every category.

Yet three years ago, the Globes included no hint that Roman Polanski’s “The Pianist” would win three major Oscars, including best actor (Adrien Brody) and director (Polanski). Indeed, Polanski wasn’t even in the running for best director, which the Globe voters gave to Martin Scorsese for “Gangs of New York.”

The major difference between the Globes and the Oscars is the number (and nature) of the voters. The Globes are awarded by fewer than 90 voters, all of them members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. Several thousand Oscar voters, most of them involved in various aspects of filmmaking, cast ballots on the work of their peers.

The Oscar voters have less in common with Globes voters than they do with the Hollywood guilds, especially the Screen Actors Guild, which recently nominated four actors left out of the Globes competition (Jake Gyllenhaal, Don Cheadle, Amy Adams, Catherine Keener), and the Producers Guild, which recently named “Crash” and “Capote” as among the top five films of the year. Neither film made it onto the Globes’ list of best picture candidates.

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