N. Korean missile test may start new Asia crisis

Saber rattling
In moving toward missile tests, North Korea may just be saber rattling. But the menacing gestures could make it even harder to get the six-nation talks restarted.

“If North Korea conducts tests, it is unlikely the talks will resume anytime soon,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association.

“The Bush administration has failed to seize the opportunity that has presented itself for some time with North Korea to negotiate a solution to the nuclear crisis — and to do many of the same things it is now proposing to do with Iran,” said Kimball.

He noted, for instance, that the administration has endorsed an incentives package for Iran that calls for negotiations with the U.S. and other incentives if Iran freezes its uranium enrichment program.

In words welcomed in the West, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Friday called the package a positive step toward resolving the standoff.

Little diplomatic movement
The North Korean situation, by contrast, has seen little similar diplomatic movement.

“While North Korea continues to develop its ability to attack the United States, our negotiating leverage decreases,” Democratic Sens. Carl Levin of Michigan and Hillary Clinton of New York wrote in a joint letter to Bush on Friday. They urged him to develop a single strategy for dealing diplomatically with North Korea — and to appoint a senior envoy to carry it out.

Long-range missile tests “would force the Bush administration to take a much more robust stand against North Korea,” said Kurt Campbell, who was deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and Pacific affairs during the Clinton administration. “It basically creates the kinds of anxieties that many in the region want to avoid.”

“Obviously, we’re pretty tapped out in terms of our military capabilities,” Campbell said. “Basically, Iraq takes all of the oxygen out of the room. There’s a little oxygen left in the cloak closet for Iran, and very little for anything else.”

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