How would Raul Castro govern?

Transition of power looms
But the long, public display of vulnerability by Fidel Castro made talk of a transition much more than academic.

In the short term, Raul Castro is the only transition figure that matters.  "Raul Castro's portfolio is already extensive," said a  diplomatic official. "The day-to-day running of things is very much his. Are there disagreements between the brothers?  Raul reintroduced the agricultural reforms that Fidel has killed off ... Persuasion is his way of dealing with Fidel. Fidel can be persuaded.  Raul talks to Fidel, laying out the benefits of reform."

But while an economic reformer, he is not a political reformer. "On the economy, he is pragmatic, but on political reform, his attitude is that we will crush them like roaches, a tough line. But he has also said that Cuba can't shut itself off from the world and not a single reform that he has instituted has been reversed."

While Raul Castro has been seen a lot recently, it is not likely to mean much, say U.S. officals.  He often will disappear and reappear in the public consciousness. The buildup in Raul Castro's image happens from time to time, and with his recent 75th birthday in May 2006, it happened again. As it did on his 70th birthday, mention of him on his 75th birthday tried to portray him as avuncular, charming and vigorous. One problem for Raul, however, is his wife's death late last year. Vilma Espina, an MIT trained engineer and a hardliner as well, was his political advisor. There are less reliable reports of his own poor health.

In each of these more recent buildups, Cuba's image makers have tried to change Raul Castro's image to make him more human because early in his career, he was viewed as the ultimate hardliner, his brother's enforcer.  Officials note that in some circles in Cuba, he remains an exceptionally unpopular man because he has so much blood on his hands, starting with the post-revolutionary firing sqauds. Espina, who attended MIT but did not graduate, was portrayed by the Miami Cubans as a Marie Antoinette character, which is not entirely false.

"In the U.S., Raul Castro is the bad guy, but when you actually meet him, he's the more human of the two, the more Cuban," said one official who has met him. "He jokes, he brags about his children and grandchildren.  He sings, he dances, he drinks apperitifs.  He smokes: local populares in public, Marlboro Lights in private.  He is more of a talker, a glad hander.

"He is also the more pragmatic, the biggest reformer.  He has attacked 'sugar-coated' reports from provincial secretaries."

Raul 'makes no secret of his family'
And many Cubans will tell you they have often seen Raul driving through Havana with the windows of his limousine down.

He places competence and loyalty on the same level as ideology, say officials.

"This is a guy who makes no secret of his family, unlike his brother. It was Raul who actually built the army, the Communist Party. He's the institution builder. The key generals are clearly deferential to Raul, but he listens to them. He talks about subordinates in ways Fidel does not.  He has experience in problem-solving. In his relationship with his brother, he is the persuader, but he does not always get his way. He will sometimes sulk about it."

What the military has become is an example for the rest of the society. "You do see some guys who're serving as ministers — communications, sugar, transportation."  Raul Castro believes that civilians have a great deal to learn from the military: "What he said was in the military when we give order, it is carried out."

While it is not a militarized society, large parts of the society are now run by the military, like hotels and tourist airlines. The Youth Labor Army, some 65,000 troops assigned to various jobs that need doing, particularly in agriculture, is typical of his efforts to get things moving, bringing in food to the cities to keep the markets full.

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