Battle for Baghdad ‘a critical point’ in the war

updated 4:45 p.m. ET Oct. 5, 2006

BAGHDAD, Iraq - The Iraq war could be heading to its decisive moment: a battle for the capital of Baghdad that already has turned dramatically bloodier for American soldiers and carries enormous stakes for the country’s future.

At least 13 American soldiers have been killed around Baghdad since Monday — the highest four-day U.S. toll in the capital since the 2003 invasion.

That count is likely to rise higher as the U.S.-led forces step up their campaign to root out the extremist militias, death squads and terrorist cells that have turned the city into a collection of armed, ethnically divided camps.

No longer a limited security problem while the main war was being fought out west in Anbar province, the battle of Baghdad is turning out to be “a critical point in the Iraq war,” says former Pentagon analyst Anthony Cordesman.

“Securing Baghdad ... won’t win. But losing Baghdad will lose,” Cordesman says. “If they lose, Iraq is likely to slip into a major civil war.”

Much of Baghdad is yet to be targeted in the joint U.S.-Iraqi pacification operation. Top commanders — signaling the toughest fight is yet to come — say they need six more Iraqi battalions, or 3,000 soldiers, to join the 30,000 Iraqi security forces and 15,000 Americans already in the city.

U.S. commanders have defined victory as reducing violence in the capital to the point where Iraqi civilian police could handle security. With order restored in the capital, the Iraqi government then could focus on providing security and basic services to the rest of the country — thus creating conditions for U.S. troops to leave.

Baghdad is “the center of gravity for the country. Everybody knows that,” Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. general in Iraq, told The Associated Press in a recent interview. “The bad guys know it, we know it, the Iraqis know it. So we have to help the Iraqis secure their capital if they’re going to go forward.”

No choice but to win
U.S. officials won’t say how they define defeat — insisting there is no choice but to win. Senior military officials concede it will take weeks if not months to turn Baghdad around. But they insist no effort can be spared.

In one sign of how crucial Baghdad is to the success of the U.S. war effort, top commanders have moved soldiers from western Iraq’s Anbar province to Baghdad for the offensive. Lt. Gen. Peter Chiarelli, the No. 2 general in Iraq, called the reshuffling necessary to “winning the main effort” in Baghdad.

The battle started relatively easily: U.S. soldiers encountered little resistance when the new offensive began Aug. 7 in the mostly Sunni Muslim areas of western Baghdad.

But that changed as operations shifted into Shiite strongholds near the Sadr City neighborhood — stronghold of the Mahdi Army of radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

Now, as the Shiites and Sunnis struggle for power, Shiite snipers fire routinely at U.S. patrols, even as Sunni insurgents plant roadside bombs west of the capital.

To achieve success, the Americans and their Iraqi partners are trying to weaken both the Sunni and Shiite extremist groups equally.

“I can’t drive (the Mahdi Army) into the dirt and let (al-Qaida) basically conduct suicide attacks at will,” one senior coalition intelligence officer said on condition of anonymity for security reasons. “I’ve got to take both elements out of the equation.”

The military tries to encourage the militias’ political patrons to reach a political deal, and offers benefits.

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