Bert Blyleven

Halfway through the season it doesn’t appear like any team will run away with the NL East. In fact, looking at what the four contenders did in June none of them has responded to the opportunity to take control of the division.

Last month the Phillies, Mets, Marlins and Braves all played under .500 baseball. Atlanta wobbled to an 11-16 mark. The Marlins weren’t much better at 12-16. The Mets were 13-15 and the Phillies 12-14, including a staggering stretch to end the month during which they won just three of 14 games.

The NL East race is one that could go right down to the wire and when it’s over I’m figuring the Phillies to have won a second consecutive division crown.

The most significant advantage the Phillies have over their division rivals is their trio of stars in Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins. Utley is having a monster year. Rollins missed some time to injury but has proven valuable since getting back into action although there has been a considerable drop in his power numbers over his MVP season of last year. Howard could post similar numbers to last season when he hit 47 home runs and had 136 RBIs. This threesome is a big reason why only the Cubs have scored more runs than the Phillies among National League teams.

A potential vulnerability for the Phillies in their bid to take the division is the depth of their rotation. Cole Hamels, Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer have gotten the job done. Hamels, who won 15 games last year, should equal or top that mark if his second half is as solid as his first half. Once considered a back-of-the-rotation starter, Kendrick is showing signs he could be better than that. Moyer struggled in the second half of last season, raising the question of whether at 45 he could still produce on a consistent basis. But the wily veteran has shown this season he can still be counted on.

Adam Eaton is making a number of quality starts and has established the consistency that he lacked last year when despite posting a 10-10 record his ERA was 6.29. The problem is the Phillies can’t seem to make the most out of what Eaton is giving them and the right-hander picked up wins in just three of his first 17 starts.

But the biggest concern is Brett Myers. A 3-9 record got him optioned to Triple-A on July 1. Myers began 2007 in the rotation but finished up last season as the closer. Then it was back to rotation this year and the top of the rotation at that as he was the Phillies’ opening-day starter.

Maybe Myers moving back and forth between roles is the biggest reason for his struggles, which have dealt a blow to his confidence. He has admitted his heart and his head were in the bullpen and he wasn’t prepared to go back in the rotation. So it could mostly be a mental thing with Myers. If that’s the case, the Phillies are hoping he will get it straightened out and get back with them soon. Their division hopes would take a hit if Myers doesn’t get back on track.

To move Myers back into the rotation the Phillies took a gamble last November in acquiring Brad Lidge from Houston in a five-player deal. But the change of scenery has done wonders for Lidge, who struggled with consistency over his last two seasons with the Astros.

The 31-year-old right-hander has been lights out. He set a club record by converting his first 19 save opportunities this season and he didn't allow an earned run through his first 17 appearances (17 innings). With the way Lidge has performed the Phillies decided to take no chances and let him test free agency after this season and they signed him to a $37.5 million, three-year contract extension. Lidge has become the cornerstone of a very good Phillies’ bullpen.

Outside of Rollins missing some time, the Phillies have stayed healthy. That’s not been the case with the Mets nor the Braves with both clubs taking a beating when it comes to injuries. Jimmy Rollins hasn’t been shy the last couple of seasons about proclaiming the Phillies the team to beat in the division but that could change quickly if Philadelphia encounters a rash of injuries the likes of which have hit New York and Atlanta.

The Mets spent the first two and a half months of the season underperforming and hearing it from the media and fans in New York. On June 16 general manager Omar Minaya had heard enough and he made a managerial change, firing Willie Randolph and replacing him with Jerry Manuel, the former White Sox manager, who was part of Randolph’s coaching staff.

It’s easier to fire one guy – the manager – than 25 – the players. The mediocrity the Mets have shown despite a payroll of $138 million wasn’t Randolph’s fault. He tried some things to get better results and for the most part those changes had little impact. Randolph is a good baseball man but the change was made to try and shake up things and get some underperforming players to meet expectations.

The Mets have considerable talent but some of their key players are older and age could be catching up with them. It’s hurt that one their best hitters, 42-year-old Moises Alou, has not been able to stay healthy, playing only 15 games over the first three months of the season. Alou hit .341 in 87 games last year and finished strong with a club-record 30-game hit streak so his bat has been greatly missed.

Pedro Martinez, counted on to be No. 2 in the rotation behind Johan Santana, injured his left hamstring in his first start of the season. He finally got back on the mound on June 3 but the first six starts he made following his return were so uncharacteristically poor that the 36-year-old right-hander has become something of a question mark for the Mets.

For New York to get on any sort of run it will need a return to health by Alou, a return to form by Martinez and also for Luis Castillo and Ryan Church to overcome the injuries that have had them out of the lineup far too often this season. With all the time lost to injuries by key position players, the Mets’ offense hasn’t gotten untracked.