Barry Bonds and the San Francisco Giants are apparently talking contract. Apparently this new contract will guarantee Bonds’ status as the uber Giant and one of baseball’s top wage earners through the 2006 season.

Apparently the 2007 season is in play as well.

Apparently these talks are inspired by dreams of the magical night when Bonds pole-axes career home run No. 756 into the anti-freeze-colored waters of McCovey Cove to such fanfare as to obscure the fact that the Giants are 7½ games off the wild-card pace.

Apparently this is a doable deal.

Here is where the fine art of cynicism comes in handy.

A certain segment of the baseball-ingesting public already has conceded Bonds the all-time home run title. With peals of joy from his 700^th career home still echoing throughout SBC Park, some believe that Babe Ruth (at 714) is a sure-fire goner, and that Henry Aaron (at 755) had better enjoy his view from the top while it lasts.

But we ask you — what joy is there in witnessing something that you expected to happen all along? Especially when that something is the felling of one of the sexiest standards in sports?

Better to cast a critical eye at Bonds’ chances of hitting 55 more home runs as a 40-something, the better to react with astonishment — again — when he sticks conventional wisdom in our ear. Again.

Make no mistake, there are legitimate reasons to doubt whether even the great Bonds can pull this one off. For all you aspiring misanthropists, those reasons would be:

• Moneyball. It always comes back to cash, and it always will. History lesson:

In 1974, with Aaron tied with Ruth, Atlanta Braves manager Eddie Mathews benched Hammerin’ Hank for a game in Cincinnati. This was a little suspicious in that a) it was only the second game of the season, and b) Aaron had homered in the first.

Mathews offered a contrived excuse, but the truth was evident. The Braves had a financial interest in Aaron hitting the record-breaker at home. Which Aaron did, in the fourth game of the season before 53,775 adoring fans and their ready wallets.

A scaled-back crowd of 10,648 attended the Braves’ fifth game of the season. Point proven.

In Bonds’ case, the current talks to guarantee the fifth year of his current five-year contract, signed before the 2002 season, could conceivably unravel before the dotted line is served. For one thing, Bonds’ salary for 2006 would be $18 million, nearly as much as the Giants’ annual debt service on their privately financed ballpark. For another, Bonds has raised the specter of playing in 2007, when he would turn 43. Presumably he would want something more than the standard 3 percent raise.

So you can see there are bridges to cross here. To understand the Giants’ commitment to fiscal responsibility, all you have to do is look at the offensive “talent” with which they have surrounded Bonds. And all you have to do to understand Bonds’ frustration with his team’s fiscal responsibility is observe his body language after receiving yet another intentional walk from a team that would rather pitch to Pedro Feliz.

Which brings us to our next point ...

• Oh, those bases on balls. It has gotten preposterous where Bonds is concerned. The man has walked more than 200 times this season, with more than 100 of those being of the intentional persuasion.

It’s an absurdity, passed off by non-Giants managers (Eddie Mathews-style) as strategy. It is seemingly their intent to keep walking the Big Man until he is no longer physically able to heft a Louisville Slugger above his waist, at which point their problems will be over.

Time isn’t Bonds’ ally where Aaron’s record is concerned. The fewer hittable pitches he sees, the more pages come off the calendar and the worse his chances become. Even if everything else goes right, this could be the thing that stalls him out in the 730s despite the desire of adoring fans (and their ready wallets) to line up to catch No. 756.

Finally, there is ...

• Father Time. Once upon a time, Aaron was the man who defied the aging process, authoring 40 home runs the year he turned 39. It was a quick descent after that. In his final four seasons, Aaron’s home run total dropped from 40, to 20, to 12, to 10. His average dropped from  .301, to .268, to .234, to .229.

Bonds, who turned 40 last July, has in excess of 40 homers and is hitting .370-plus, so the Aaron analogy may not be seamless. Bonds’ decline could come later. Or he could go the way of Mark McGwire, who was betrayed by a bum knee while still in the prime of his career.

The one thing we know is, it won’t last forever with Bonds. He could be the power-hitting equivalent of Nolan Ryan, still going strong at 45, or he could feel something pop in his back tomorrow and be done.

Or he could flame out between here and 756. Or he could lose interest and make good on one of his many threats to retire. Or he could walk away mad because the money isn’t right.

Or he could confound us all and become baseball’s all-time home run king despite the odds stacked against him. Here’s a warning: On that night, “I told you so” is going to be a wholly unfulfilling fallback position.

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