Hold the party, Mets fans
High-spending offseason will make
team better only in the short term
![]() Frank Franklin Ii / AP It's a near certainty that the Mets won't get four full, 200-inning seasons out of Martinez, writes columnist Tony DeMarco. |
Tony DeMarco |
The last time we checked, the New York Mets compete against the Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals in the National League East. But not the New York Yankees. So enough, already.
Enough of the dueling press conference comparisons from Tuesday's Carlos Beltran and Randy Johnson meet-and-greets. Why, one account of the interborough photo ops even included what food was served at each. (Media freeloaders reportedly got to chow down on pepper steak and chicken parmesan for late-morning brunch in Flushing, then sample fried chicken tenders and shrimp a few hours later in the Bronx.)
Enough already about who's hogging the most back page space in the New York tabloids. Or who's winning the Big Apple winter spending war. West of the Hudson River, the other 99 percent of the baseball universe doesn't really care.
Yes, the Mets have made two impressive big splashes by signing Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez -- moves that will make them better this season (not saying much, since they lost 91 games in 2004).
And yes, new general manager Omar Minaya deserves credit for his persistence, creativity and big thinking. He could be correct in believing that signing Martinez will bring benefits far beyond what Martinez provides on the mound. Calling Beltran's agent 31 days in a row and making trips to woo Martinez and Beltran on their turf in the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico also were nice touches.
More on this story |
But bottom line, the Yankees will win 100 games again, and the Mets won't — and they could be painting themselves into a financial corner down the road. What the Mets have done is turn themselves into an 85-win team, and perhaps a playoff entrant if everything goes right. But perhaps something less, as well. Because we all know — don't we? — that spending sprees rarely translate into overnight championships, and more often than not, end in failure on the field and on the bottom line. (See Rockies, Colorado).
Unlike some other previous big spenders, the Mets do have the luxury of their own cable network startup in 2006, which could cover any spending transgressions. But that's not a guarantee, and it's certainly no excuse for making poor financial decisions on any level. So the Mets are either the winter's biggest winners, or just the biggest spendthrifts, and there is a strong case that can be made for the latter. Let's raise some red flags amidst the hype:
The Mets clearly have overpaid for every signing this winter. We include giving Kris Benson $23 million over three years in the mix — a move made to avoid the embarrassment of losing him a few months after sending prospects to Pittsburgh in an illogical trade-deadline deal made by the previous administration, who wrongly thought the Mets were an NL East contender at the time. Ditto Victor Zambrano from Tampa Bay for Scott Kazmir, but at least Zambrano isn't as expensive.
Benson, a former No. 1 overall pick, has underachieved his way to a 47-53 career record, and projects as the No. 3 or No. 4 starter. He's never won more than 12 games in a season, has posted only one sub-4.00 ERA in five big-league seasons, and was healthy enough to pitch only 235 innings in 2002-03. That's not much of a track record for an $8-million-per-year starter, even in this winter's inflated pitching market.
It's a near certainty that the Mets won't get four full, 200-inning seasons out of Martinez, who is 33 and has a fragile shoulder. He still can be a dominant pitcher, a sub-3.00 ERA force and a big winner, and probably will be over the next two seasons. Martinez replacing Al Leiter in the rotation, and moving to the ace spot ahead of a slipping Tom Glavine certainly is an upgrade. But it's 2007 and 2008, when they still will be paying Martinez $13 million a year, that could come back to haunt them.
Beltran is a marvelous talent, and at 27 (he'll turn 28 in April) should be in his prime years. He is the only player in history to have four consecutive seasons of at least 20 homers, 100 runs, 100 RBI and 30 steals. But he did hit only .267 last season, and moving to Shea Stadium isn't going to help his numbers any. But it's not so much the next few years that should cause concern. In years four through seven of the contract — 2008 through 2011 — the Mets will be paying him $18.5 million per season, and by the end of the deal, he won't be stealing nearly as many bases, or ranging as far in center field.
And as much as the Mets have spent so far (almost $200 million for Beltran, Martinez and Benson, and possibly more on Carlos Delgado), they still have obvious holes. Unless they sign Delgado, they will be giving up too much power at a key spot with Jason Phillips at first base. They could trade for Doug Mientkiewicz or sign John Olerud, but neither will do much to change that shortcoming. The up-the-middle tandem of Kaz Matsui and Jose Reyes is anything but a proven commodity at this point.
The corner outfield spots also could be a concern. Mike Cameron, unhappy about being transplanted to right field by Beltran, has a wrist injury and most likely will spend the first month or so on the disabled list. That currently leaves Eric Valent and Joe McEwing in a platoon. Meanwhile, Cliff Floyd is a constant health risk in left, and Mike Piazza still will be a liability behind the plate, and dependable backup Vance Wilson was traded to Detroit.
And when new skipper Willie Randolph has to look beyond his rotation of mostly six-inning starters, he will find out the hard way how nice it was to have Tom Gordon and Co. in front of Mariano Rivera across town. In other words, the Mets' bullpen hardly is a strength at this point, with young closer Braden Looper and a setup crew of inconsistent Mike DeJean, even more inconsistent Felix Heredia and a bunch of other question marks.
Q: What exactly is salary arbitration? I have heard those words often in the offseason, but their meaning is a total mystery to me.
— Katie Sloan, Long Island, N.Y.
A: I'll try to keep this as brief as possible. For the first three years of players' major-league careers, they have next to no recourse when it comes to their salaries — other than their performance, of course. Basically, they take what the club gives them based on a minimum rookie salary of $330,000 — although in the case of young star players, they still can be rather well-compensated.
But once a player has three years of major-league experience, he qualifies for the salary arbitration process. In essence, what that means is the player's salary now must become comparable to other players who have similar statistics. And if the player feels the club isn't giving him what he deserves based on statistics and performance, he has the right to take the case to an arbitrator, who determines a salary from a figure submitted by the player, and another figure submitted by the club.
It's one or the other, nothing in between. So in most cases, an equitable deal is reached before an arbitrator gets involved. But there will be a few cases every February that make it all the way to the arbitrator. Either way, players often make huge salary jumps — 100, 200 percent or more — in their first year of eligibility for the process, so it is an important career milestone to reach.
Q: Do you think that Sammy Sosa will rebound from his subpar 2004 season? Or has he dug a hole from which he can't get out?
— Charles Torres, Chicago
A: Sammy's days as a 60-homer guy are ancient history, if that's what you mean. Injuries are taking their toll, as he has missed 61 games over the last two seasons. And his production has fallen off dramatically since 2001 — not just last season, but in a three-year pattern.
In 2001, he hit .328 with 64 homers, 160 RBI and 146 runs — an historically amazing season. In the three years since, his batting average has dropped from .288 to .279 to .253; his home-run totals have fallen from 49 to 40 to 35, and his RBI totals have slipped from 108 to 103 to 80. That's a pretty severe decline, and things don't figure to improve a whole lot as he will play this season at 36.
All that, and we haven't even mentioned the clubhouse problems with teammates — a situation that clearly has to change for 2005. To me, there is absolutely no doubt that it's time for Sosa to move on, whether it be to the Mets, Orioles or some other team. The Mets present a positive situation for him in that he has known Mets general manager Omar Minaya for about 20 years — ever since Minaya signed Sosa out of the Dominican Republic for the Texas Rangers. I think Sammy can return to his 2002-03 levels, but that's about as much as can be expected. And if he does stay with the Cubs, some serious fence-mending is going to have to occur in spring training.
Q: The Atlanta Braves need corner outfielders desperately. Who do you think will end up playing left and right field?
— Steve, Norfolk, Va.
A: Good question, Steve. Everybody is jumping all over the fact that the Braves have Tim Hudson and John Smoltz in their rotation, but they have been ignoring the fact that besides losing J.D. Drew to free-agency, the Braves also put Charles Thomas in the Hudson deal, traded Eli Marrero to Kansas City and lost Dewayne Wise on waivers. Those guys (along with Chipper Jones, who's back at third base) started all but nine games at the two corner outfield spots last season, leaving nobody in their places at the current time.
Raul Mondesi has reportedly agreed to a one-year, $1 million deal and will start in right field. Top prospect Jeff Francouer could get a look in spring training, but he probably is a year away. The other top free-agent outfielders left are injury risk Magglio Ordonez and Jeromy Burnitz, but the Braves haven't been linked to either to date. Beyond them, you're looking at limited role players such as Ben Grieve, Brian Jordan and Tom Goodwin. Trade-wise, Mike Cameron could become available, but a wrist injury is expected to put him on the disabled list to start the season. Let's see what John Schuerholz can pull out of his bag of tricks this time.
Q: Do you think that 2005 finally will be the year that the A's come good in the playoffs? Do you think the players acquired in the Mulder and Hudson deals will have an immediate impact, or are the A's rebuilding?
— John Long, Oakland
A: I have my doubts about the A's even getting to the playoffs next season. The Angels made some excellent additions and are a solid favorite in my mind to win the American League West. And with the Yankees and Red Sox coming out of the American League East, it's going to be real tough for anybody else to win the wild card.
That said, I don't think the A's are going to fall in the standings as much as some people are thinking, and I wouldn't use the word rebuilding. The young talent they received for Mulder and Hudson is very good, and in most cases, should contribute right away. Juan Cruz and Kiko Calero should be key parts of the setup crew in front of Octavio Dotel. Charles Thomas has speed and plays excellent defense. Dan Haren projects as the No. 3 starter, and lefty Dan Meyer also will get a chance in the rotation. And remember the name Daric Barton, a hard-hitting catcher who should start this year at Double A. I see the A's slipping back toward the .500 mark, but I'll be very surprised if they fall off the map, as the Mariners and Diamondbacks did last season.
- Discuss Story On Newsvine
- Rate Story:
LowHigh - Instant Message
MORE FROM BASEBALL |
| Add Baseball headlines to your news reader: |
Sponsored links


