ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

2005 finish: 77-85, 2^nd place in NL West

Manager: Bob Melvin (2^nd season)

Incoming: 2B Orlando Hudson, C Johnny Estrada, RHP Miguel Batista, OF Eric Byrnes, RHP Orlando Hernandez, RHP Luis Vizcaino, IF Damion Easley, OF Jeff DaVanon, RHP Jason Grimsley, RHP Jeff Bejanaru, LHP Terry Mulholland, OF Chris Young, IF Alberto Callaspo

Long gone: 3B Troy Glaus, RHP Javier Vazquez, RHP Oscar Villareal, IF Alex Cintron, SS Royce Clayton, LHP Shawn Estes, C Kelly Stinnett, RHP Tim Worrell, RHP Lance Cormier, LHP Buddy Groom, RHP Jason Bulger

Rotation: RHP Brandon Webb, RHP Orlando Hernandez, RHP Miguel Batista, RHP Russ Ortiz, LHP Brad Halsey or RHP Claudio Vargas

Relievers: Closer: RHP Jose Valverde, Setup men: RHP Brandon Lyon, RHP Luis Vizcaino, RHP Brandon Medders, RHP Jason Grimsley, RHP Mike Koplove, RHP Greg Aquino, RHP Brian Bruney, LHP Terry Mulholland, LHP Randy Choate

Regulars: SS Craig Counsell, CF Eric Byrnes, 3B Chad Tracy, LF Luis Gonzalez, RF Shawn Green, 1B Conor Jackson, C Johnny Estrada, 2B Orlando Hudson

Role players: C Chris Snyder or Koyie Hill, 1B Tony Clark, IF Damian Easley, IF Andy Green, SS Stephen Drew, IF/OF Scott Hairston, OF Jeff DaVanon, OF Luis Terrero

The pressure is on: Miguel Batista will try to come out of the bullpen and start again at 35, and if you’re not John Smoltz, that’s not a good idea.

Breakout candidate: Healthy again, Jose Valverde is coming off a September in which he picked up nine saves.

Rundown: That the Snakes followed up their disastrous 111-loss 2004 season by coming within seven games of .500 was one of last year’s flukiest results. They improved by 26 games, yet had a bullpen ERA of 5.50, and finished 14^th in the league in ERA and 10^th in runs scored, not to mention getting a shocking .304-30-87 season from Tony Clark. No team overachieved more according to the Bill James/Pythagorean method for determining wins. In truth, this should have been about a 70-win squad, and with Javier Vazquez and Troy Glaus gone, that’s the range they will be in this season. With a payroll of about $60-65 million, new general manager Josh Byrnes’ task was to dump a couple of big salaries, and he did so with mixed results. For Vazquez, who had demanded a deal, they got Orlando ‘El Duque’ Hernandez, usable setup man Luis Vizcaino, and the key to the deal – top center field prospect Chris Young. For Glaus, they received Miguel Batista, who will go back into the rotation after one season as a closer, and defensive whiz Orlando Hudson, who will move Craig Counsell from second base to shortstop. Johnny Estrada will be an upgrade over last year’s catching trio that combined to go .211-11-44. The departure of Glaus eases some of the logjam at the corner-infield spots, putting Chad Tracy at third base, and promising rookie Conor Jackson and Clark likely splitting time at first base. But the loss of Glaus’ power will be noticable. In the outfield, anticipate continued dwindling production from corner men Luis Gonzalez and Shawn Green, as well as Energizer bunny-like Eric Byrnes trying to cover the spacious center field at Chase Field, even though he is better-suited to play a corner spot. Perhaps a quality pitching staff could prop up this lineup, but that just isn’t going to be the case here, as there is no way this staff is division-title caliber. Brandon Webb will be better having Hudson behind him on the infield, but Hernandez, at least 36 and possibly 40, has pitched fewer than 100 innings in two of his last four seasons, and has a stiff back this spring. Batista is a question mark returning to the rotation, and the bad contract given to Russ Ortiz will continue to haunt. The bullpen doesn’t look to be any more promising, although a healthy Jose Valverde should emerge as a quality closer. But the rest of the bullpen roles are to be determined, with Brandon Lynn, Brandon Medders, Vizcaino, Jason Grimsley and newly acquired Jeff Bejanaru the best of the right-handers. Heading into camp, the best left candidate is 43-year-old Terry Mulholland, who was released by Minnesota. Bejanaru came from the White Sox for backup infielder Alex Cintron, even though Counsell has been bothered all spring by a slightly torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. That leads you to believe the injury isn’t that serious, and that the D-Backs believe top prospect Stephen Drew will be ready by mid-season or earlier. In fact, as this season unfolds, older and/or expensive parts such as Counsell, Clark, Gonzalez and Green could be moved to make room for an influx of some of the best prospects in the game. Jackson should become the every-day first baseman. Byrnes isn’t really a center fielder, so Young could be out there by September. Carlos Quinton could grab at-bats at the corner outfield spots. And by September, this could be a real young and inexperienced team that makes the Rockies look like a veteran unit. That’s the right way for the D-Backs to go long-term, but it will mean slipping back to last place this season.

Predicted finish: 71-91, 5^th place

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