COMMENTARY

By Mike DeCourcy

updated 7:28 p.m. ET March 5, 2005

I'm so not a gambling man that I rarely even look at the newspaper line. If I had a dollar for every time I was unable to answer this question — "What's the line on this game?" — I might have enough money to place a fair-sized bet.

So I was more than a little surprised when I discovered, while sifting through the back pages of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer sports section, that somebody out there makes an over/under line on how many teams from the top conferences will be invited to the NCAA Tournament.

Well, we can play that game without any money involved.

ACC
Line: 5 1/2 teams. The pick: Under. The obvious choices are North Carolina, Wake Forest and Duke. Georgia Tech's win at Miami makes the Yellow Jackets an easier choice. Maryland's going to make it. Only one more would have to be included for it to go over, but no one else is in great shape. Only Virginia Tech has an advantageous schedule, but the Hokies have the weakest record.

Big East
Line: 7 teams. The pick: Push. Boston College, UConn, Syracuse, Pittsburgh and Villanova are solid. West Virginia has some strong wins. Georgetown and Notre Dame are OK, but hurt their own cases with recent defeats. One of them figures to fall out of the picture.

Big Ten
Line: 4 1/2. The pick: Under. Man, if you can find five tournament-worthy teams in this league, you've got an imagination powerful enough to write the next Harry Potter sequel. Illinois. Michigan State. Wisconsin. And then what?

Big 12
Line: 5. The pick: Over. This is a risk, but that's why they call it gambling. Kansas, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech are in. Texas is in decent shape, but not great. Iowa State killed itself in the past week. Texas A&M has made a strong move but has a long way to go. Remember, two of its wins were non-Division I.

Conference USA
Line: 5. The pick: Under. Louisville, Cincinnati, DePaul and Charlotte are set. To get in from here, Memphis needs to win perhaps four in a row. And anyone else would have to win the conference tournament.

Pac-10
Line: 3. The pick: Over. Arizona and Washington were in about two months ago. UCLA got a huge win at Notre Dame on Sunday. Stanford hasn't played like a tournament-caliber team, but it looks like one. The committee won't want to leave out this program if it isn't forced to do so.

SEC
Line: 5. The pick: Over. The compliant bottom of this league allows the better teams to inflate their records to the point where either Vanderbilt or Arkansas might join Kentucky, Florida, Alabama, LSU and Mississippi State.

Print this Email this Blog this  IM this

MORE FROM COLLEGE BASKETBALL

College basketball Section Front

Report: Kansas' Arthur had grades changed Jarvis a candidate to coach Fla. Atlantic Mayo: I didn't 'sell out myself and my family' Ventre: Athletes to blame for cash-dash antics Opinion: Mayo issue goes deeper than USC program Beyond the Arc: Notre Dame 23rd on greatest programs Slide show: Top NBA draft prospects Complete list of early entries to NBA draft Slide show: NCAA Tournament images Images: Cheerleaders from NCAA men's tournament College basketball Section Front   Add College basketball headlines to your news reader: