China-Japan rivalry heats up

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For the United States, the Chinese-Japanese rivalry is further complicated by the shifting political attitudes of an important ally, South Korea.

As Seoul’s growth increasingly depend on China’s expansive economy, there are moves for greater political and security relationships as well, which could upset the U.S.-crafted alliances in Asia where North Korea’s nuclear program remains an explosive issue.

South Korea and China have effectively joined forces in opposing Japan, both on the U.N. Security Council and the textbook issues.

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Economic ties between the two nations have also grown as China became the biggest recipient of South Korea’s investments for the last three years, supplanting the United States. Last year, it absorbed nearly half of all South Korea’s overseas investments.

After a recent visit to Beijing, South Korea’s defense minister also declared plans to bolster military cooperation, including joint military exercises with China. It was seen as a bold move as China fought on the side of North Korea during the Korean War.

A realignment of ties seems inevitable in some ways. “Definitely China and South Korea will get closer, economically and also militarily,” suggested China’s top international security expert Professor Yan Xuetong.

As a result, “the U.S.-South Korea alliance will definitely become less and less stable.”

While far from any armed collision, the emerging Japanese-Chinese rivalry and related shifts in regional alignments clearly presents a new challenge for the Bush administration.

While China’s continuing reform and cooperation in the war on terror have helped improve Chinese-American ties, the U.S. remains primarily committed to the defense and security of Japan as a major democratic ally.

How America’s interest might be affected by the struggle for supremacy in Asia still remains to be seen.

But it is clear that how China, Japan, the United States, and related alliances interact in the coming years will forecast Asia’s political landscape in the 21^st century.

Eric Baculinao is an NBC News' Producer based in Beijing. Brian Newbury is a researcher in the NBC News Beijing Bureau.

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